The image (left) is the latest global surface temperature record (updated Dec/2011): see WUWT for details; the green area in the image (click to enlarge) is the the range predicted in the IPCC's 2007 Global Climate Model..."The original published temperature record is in red, while the updated version is in blue. The black curve is the proposed harmonic component plus the proposed corrected anthropogenic warming trend. The figure shows in yellow the harmonic component alone made of the four cycles, which may be interpreted as a lower boundary limit for the natural variability. The green area represents the range of the IPCC 2007 GCM projections.".
It is 'just another model' and as the author notes, only time will tell; I have added the widget to Owsblog sidebar so in a few decades we can see (!!!). hat-tip Cassandra at B-BBC.