Sunday, April 28, 2013

Observing obedience...

Hot on the heels of the realisation that there is no correlation between levels of funding and pupil performance, we see too that there is no correlation between police numbers and levels of crime. Raedwald thinks 'the buggers are putting bromide in the tea or something' (hat-tip and image, click to enlarge). I used to question the numbers under New Labour, fiddling stats etc., and now I question them under the Coalition - playing with numbers - but it is definitely happening and some of the reductions are marked: "In fact, almost every category of criminality that you can think of is declining. Here is the even better news. This is not a blip. The downward trend is now very well established and can be traced back over many years." says Andrew Rawnsley, writing about this 'crime mystery' in today's' Observer.

It is similar in the US (no, really! since the 1990s); it's going down, but no one really knows why although a number of theories are espoused. I think the lead in petrol hypothesis a bit weak, and no doubt the real reason is a blend of several complex issues that I am ignorant of but my own personal theory is the 'equalisation' of everyone: we don't have everything we want but we are more than comfortable; I am over-generalising grossly but everyone has a 'flash' TV, everyone has a smart phone and everyone has access to the Internet and there are now so many TV channels. Added to which barely anybody in the West is really in poverty or starving so what happens? We can't be bothered, we don't 'need' to steal; the only ones committing crime are the sickos who always will, no matter what, or those from a not-so-developed country/culture that they haven't been 'equalised' yet.


Woodsy42 said...

Could be as simple as people knowing nothing will be done so not bothering to report it - and if they do the police don't prosecute anyhow.

Span Ows said...

That is my take on a lot of it Woodsy: both New Labour and the Coalition have changed counting methods and everyone knows the reduction in police stations over various decades etc, but there is no denying a semi-global trend.

Paul said...

Saw this on a forum regarding the decline in violent crime.

The BME population of five least violent per the 2011 census:

Broadland: 2.4%
Three Rivers: 13.8% (2.7% black)
South Cambridgeshire: 6.0%
East Dorset: 2%
Maldon: 1.7%

and the same for the five most violent:

Lewisham: 46.5%
Lambeth: 43%
Hackney: 45.5%
Newham: 71.2%
Tower Hamlets: 52.9%

Now without getting into a racist stew over this its worth noting that among those five London boroughs which have the most crime and the most non-ethnic populations are boroughs which have 'suffered' more immigration from non-European countries over the last decade.

Span Ows said...

Think I saw the 'most violent' 5 too, probably in a comment somewhere, must say I didn't think about it too much at the time but seeing it again in black and white (oops, am I allowed to say that) and next to the lowest figures it is concerning to say the least!