Observations and observances II...

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Or Observations and observances two...too, to, tu, tutu...THIS was at the beginning of the month and today on the downward slope out of the month...but still worth seeing: it's 22:22, 22/2/22. ooooh.

 

Observations and observances II...

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Or Observations and observances two...too, to, tu, tutu...THIS was at the beginning of the month and today on the downward slope out of the month...but still worth seeing: it's 22:22, 22/2/22. ooooh.

 

Observations and observances...

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Well, what a month so far...a new moon in Aquarius (not quite dawning of the age...) and the Year of the Tiger starting; always been good for me. And today, well, Candlemas (snowdrops), Groundhog Day and the tutu...so it's said: well, today is obviously the first of a few palindrome dates this month: 2/2/22, Twos Day, not to be confused with Twosday (22/2/22..which is a Tuesday!). Love it.

btw, click on the images for info.

Observations and observances...

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Well, what a month so far...a new moon in Aquarius (not quite dawning of the age...) and the Year of the Tiger starting; always been good for me. And today, well, Candlemas (snowdrops), Groundhog Day and the tutu...so it's said: well, today is obviously the first of a few palindrome dates this month: 2/2/22, Twos Day, not to be confused with Twosday (22/2/22..which is a Tuesday!). Love it.

btw, click on the images for info.

Obvious outcasts...

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'What is left to say?' A nice summing up of a "world has simply gone bonkers" from Dr. Malcolm Kendrick (a UK GP, US eq = primary care physician I think!) on his blog as 2020 came to an end. I opine that it is very much worth a read as are a majority of the comments. 

Dr. Kendrick uses and quotes The European Mortality Monitoring project, which has presumably seen it's website traffic increase several million-fold in the last 10 months. He posted images of several graphs that by complete coincidence I was viewing yesterday, gobsmacked at how many countries had seen almost zero effect of COVID-19 last year. See HERE (scroll down to below the map). "There is a special prize for anyone who can match up the severity of restrictions in various countries, to the Z-score. I say this, because no correlation exists." 

You WILL be surpised (see image left; obviously you'll need to click to enlarge but fewer than 30% of the countries listed had anything outside the 'substancial increase' range). 

Then onto other concerns: in the comments themselves many have said the actions of lockdown will have far harsher effects: cure worse than illness etc, I was saying that back in early March but more from hopeful ignorance than much else and if you consider I was in Mexico at the time and currently their fatality rate is FOUR times the global average (!!!) and the average age of death 20 and 27 years BELOW the Europe and the UK respectively maybe I wasn't so 'right' for their situation, see final column 'lethality' in the image below, from covidgraph.com...WTF?

 

Anyhoo, a the UK Office of National Statistics estimates, 17,500 excess deaths per year for several years due only to the economic impact of lockdown. (see comment January 1, 2021 at 1:01 pm) "[You] have to take into account the cancer diagnoses not being made, the people dying from other conditions who did not attend hospital when they should have done so. The increase in household violence, women and children being battered. The people losing their jobs, the impact of poverty on health. The loneliness and depression. The destruction of the quality of life of many elderly people... 

"Lockdown is killing many people. Has killed many people. may well kill more people that Covid19 will ever manage. This cannot all simply be brushed under the carpet." [sic]

Dying from Covid-19, or suffering long term effects from Covid-19 are not the only health issues that matter: "Since Covid19 arrived, far more people have died of cardiovascular disease, or cancer, or diabetes, than Covid. This laser like focus on one condition, and only one condition, is absolutely ridiculous. You can die, and be damaged, by many other things."

Indeed, and another doctor has the possible probable  answer: Dr No's The Covid Delusion. "So why all the media hysteria and government interference? Just as when the only tool you have at hand is a hammer, everything looks like a nail..."

"Psychiatry still has no idea what causes most delusions, and as a result there are many theories about their origin, some plausible, some improbable, and some that are frankly downright delusional. One of the more plausible theories involves both perceptual filtering (filtering what you see and hear) and cognitive filtering (filtering what you think), with the processes becoming self-reinforcing as the delusion beds in. Could it be that, after months of constant not just daily but hourly bombardment with all things covid, amounting to external perceptual and cognitive filtering, that not just individuals, but whole blocks of society have lost reason, and become deluded?"

Dr. No leads with a quote from psychiatrist Alfred Hoche "There is no delusional idea held by the mentally ill which cannot be exceeded in its absurdity by the conviction of fanatics, either individually or en masse". This is where we are, politicians, SAGE communists, 'experts' and general hangers-on power crazed at their new found power they will do everything to maintain the fear: including lie, bluster, omit, and ignore aided and abetted by the more-evil-than-ever main-stream media. It is reminiscent of the a witch-doctor doing all he can to maintain his hold over the chieftan. The Sun god is dissatisfied, we didn't slaughter enough innocents! 

Two more quotes to add to that of Hoche, both by Albert Einstein:

"The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits." 

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former."

Obvious outcasts...

---

'What is left to say?' A nice summing up of a "world has simply gone bonkers" from Dr. Malcolm Kendrick (a UK GP, US eq = primary care physician I think!) on his blog as 2020 came to an end. I opine that it is very much worth a read as are a majority of the comments. 

Dr. Kendrick uses and quotes The European Mortality Monitoring project, which has presumably seen it's website traffic increase several million-fold in the last 10 months. He posted images of several graphs that by complete coincidence I was viewing yesterday, gobsmacked at how many countries had seen almost zero effect of COVID-19 last year. See HERE (scroll down to below the map). "There is a special prize for anyone who can match up the severity of restrictions in various countries, to the Z-score. I say this, because no correlation exists." 

You WILL be surpised (see image left; obviously you'll need to click to enlarge but fewer than 30% of the countries listed had anything outside the 'substancial increase' range). 

Then onto other concerns: in the comments themselves many have said the actions of lockdown will have far harsher effects: cure worse than illness etc, I was saying that back in early March but more from hopeful ignorance than much else and if you consider I was in Mexico at the time and currently their fatality rate is FOUR times the global average (!!!) and the average age of death 20 and 27 years BELOW the Europe and the UK respectively maybe I wasn't so 'right' for their situation, see final column 'lethality' in the image below, from covidgraph.com...WTF?

 

Anyhoo, a the UK Office of National Statistics estimates, 17,500 excess deaths per year for several years due only to the economic impact of lockdown. (see comment January 1, 2021 at 1:01 pm) "[You] have to take into account the cancer diagnoses not being made, the people dying from other conditions who did not attend hospital when they should have done so. The increase in household violence, women and children being battered. The people losing their jobs, the impact of poverty on health. The loneliness and depression. The destruction of the quality of life of many elderly people... 

"Lockdown is killing many people. Has killed many people. may well kill more people that Covid19 will ever manage. This cannot all simply be brushed under the carpet." [sic]

Dying from Covid-19, or suffering long term effects from Covid-19 are not the only health issues that matter: "Since Covid19 arrived, far more people have died of cardiovascular disease, or cancer, or diabetes, than Covid. This laser like focus on one condition, and only one condition, is absolutely ridiculous. You can die, and be damaged, by many other things."

Indeed, and another doctor has the possible probable  answer: Dr No's The Covid Delusion. "So why all the media hysteria and government interference? Just as when the only tool you have at hand is a hammer, everything looks like a nail..."

"Psychiatry still has no idea what causes most delusions, and as a result there are many theories about their origin, some plausible, some improbable, and some that are frankly downright delusional. One of the more plausible theories involves both perceptual filtering (filtering what you see and hear) and cognitive filtering (filtering what you think), with the processes becoming self-reinforcing as the delusion beds in. Could it be that, after months of constant not just daily but hourly bombardment with all things covid, amounting to external perceptual and cognitive filtering, that not just individuals, but whole blocks of society have lost reason, and become deluded?"

Dr. No leads with a quote from psychiatrist Alfred Hoche "There is no delusional idea held by the mentally ill which cannot be exceeded in its absurdity by the conviction of fanatics, either individually or en masse". This is where we are, politicians, SAGE communists, 'experts' and general hangers-on power crazed at their new found power they will do everything to maintain the fear: including lie, bluster, omit, and ignore aided and abetted by the more-evil-than-ever main-stream media. It is reminiscent of the a witch-doctor doing all he can to maintain his hold over the chieftan. The Sun god is dissatisfied, we didn't slaughter enough innocents! 

Two more quotes to add to that of Hoche, both by Albert Einstein:

"The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits." 

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former."

Orbs, orbits and orreries...

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Anyone with an orrey [edit: orrery FFS!] will see the two biggest planets in our solar system as close as they have seemed in December, "Jupiter and Saturn will appear closer in Earth's night sky than they have since 1226 A.D."; only about 1 degree apart for us looking up. OK, the close alignment of these two planets happens every 20 years or so.* "But it's not always in December and it's been nearly 800 years—we're talking Middle Ages—since they got this close. 

"Technically, the two largest planets in our solar system will still be hundreds of millions of miles apart. But Dec. 21, from our vantage point, they'll look like they're nearly touching, creating a radiant point of light that's being dubbed the Christmas Star, or Star of Bethlehem, for obvious reasons."

"The lousiest year in living memory will end with an offering of heavenly wonder: a Christmas Star."

Also, it is the winter solstice so I suppose of course this alignment could be a brighter Saturnalia than usual if that's your thing (plenty of Romans about!) or shining for Juul (even more pagans!) etc...

* ...actually 19.86 years for the average frequency of a great conjunction so the last one was on 10.2.01 and today is 21.12.20...ooooh. 

Orbs, orbits and orreries...

---

Anyone with an orrey [edit: orrery FFS!] will see the two biggest planets in our solar system as close as they have seemed in December, "Jupiter and Saturn will appear closer in Earth's night sky than they have since 1226 A.D."; only about 1 degree apart for us looking up. OK, the close alignment of these two planets happens every 20 years or so.* "But it's not always in December and it's been nearly 800 years—we're talking Middle Ages—since they got this close. 

"Technically, the two largest planets in our solar system will still be hundreds of millions of miles apart. But Dec. 21, from our vantage point, they'll look like they're nearly touching, creating a radiant point of light that's being dubbed the Christmas Star, or Star of Bethlehem, for obvious reasons."

"The lousiest year in living memory will end with an offering of heavenly wonder: a Christmas Star."

Also, it is the winter solstice so I suppose of course this alignment could be a brighter Saturnalia than usual if that's your thing (plenty of Romans about!) or shining for Juul (even more pagans!) etc...

* ...actually 19.86 years for the average frequency of a great conjunction so the last one was on 10.2.01 and today is 21.12.20...ooooh. 

Other outbreak oblocutors...

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"You know nothing John Snow" is probably what he was told: John Snow, the British physician who 'first determined that cholera spread through contaminated water'; he wasn't sure how but he was right; he also had many naysayers and detractors.[{typo edit} Interestingly the sadly MIA blogger Raedwald mentioned him back in April:

"We must keep exposing the manifold failures of the central Whitehall machine. They are costing lives." 

 Anyhoo...the reason for John Snow the mention is that The Great Barrington Declaration has a rival: The John Snow Memorandum. A couple of days ago Lockdown Skeptics debunked a lot of it and today they ask "Who are the Real Heirs of John Snow in the Herd Immunity Debate?

"The conventional wisdom at the time – the view held by the scientific establishment – was the miasma theory, which held that diseases such as cholera and bubonic plague were caused by pollution or “bad air”. Instead of relying on this theory, Snow actually did some on-the-ground research, talking to local residents and analysing the pattern of infection. In this way, he was able to trace the source of the outbreak to a water pump in Broad Street and end the epidemic. Snow’s discovery, which came about because he engaged in methodical, empirical research rather than relying on some divorced-from-reality theory, is regarded as the founding event of the science of epidemiology.

For a group of establishment panjandrums to invoke John Snow’s name, given that their entire approach to the pandemic is rooted in abstract mathematical modelling, is almost laughably inappropriate."

That said, he did order the handle of the 'Broad Street Pump' to be removed so as to avoid the residents drinking the water; I suppose that could be construed as an early 'lockdown restriction' couldn't it? 

More good stuff  HERE from Robert E. Wright at the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER) ['What?' I hear you murmour...no worries, he's a historian].

"In case my fancy words remain unclear, I am saying that the public health officials who do not understand the correct policy response to covid, represented by the Great Barrington Declaration, fail to do so because they have not studied the history of science or even medicine in sufficient detail to understand the scientific method. They are too ignorant to be humble.

Case in point, John Snow himself would have signed the Great Barrington Declaration, not the John Snow Declaration."

Finally, a few choice words from Dr. Atlas Scott [great name!], who when interviewed had some ghastly and wrrying statistics e.g. "[in the USA]...an astonishing 25.5 percent of people between 18 and 24 contemplated suicide in the month of June alone" WTF? Lockdown's a winner...NOT!

"History will record the faces of the public health expertise as some of the most sinful, egregious, epic failures in the history of public policy. They have killed people with their lack of understanding and their lack of caring about not just the impact of cases of COVID-19, a virus that the overwhelming majority of people do well in. They never cared to considered the impact of the policy itself, and the policy itself has been a complete epic failure, and honestly some people say a crime against humanity — these people should be held accountable for what they did."

Winter is Coming.

Other outbreak oblocutors...

---

"You know nothing John Snow" is probably what he was told: John Snow, the British physician who 'first determined that cholera spread through contaminated water'; he wasn't sure how but he was right; he also had many naysayers and detractors.[{typo edit} Interestingly the sadly MIA blogger Raedwald mentioned him back in April:

"We must keep exposing the manifold failures of the central Whitehall machine. They are costing lives." 

 Anyhoo...the reason for John Snow the mention is that The Great Barrington Declaration has a rival: The John Snow Memorandum. A couple of days ago Lockdown Skeptics debunked a lot of it and today they ask "Who are the Real Heirs of John Snow in the Herd Immunity Debate?

"The conventional wisdom at the time – the view held by the scientific establishment – was the miasma theory, which held that diseases such as cholera and bubonic plague were caused by pollution or “bad air”. Instead of relying on this theory, Snow actually did some on-the-ground research, talking to local residents and analysing the pattern of infection. In this way, he was able to trace the source of the outbreak to a water pump in Broad Street and end the epidemic. Snow’s discovery, which came about because he engaged in methodical, empirical research rather than relying on some divorced-from-reality theory, is regarded as the founding event of the science of epidemiology. For a group of establishment panjandrums to invoke John Snow’s name, given that their entire approach to the pandemic is rooted in abstract mathematical modelling, is almost laughably inappropriate."

That said, he did order the handle of the 'Broad Street Pump' to be removed so as to avoid the residents drinking the water; I suppose that could be construed as an early 'lockdown restriction' couldn't it? 

More good stuff  HERE from Robert E. Wright at the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER) ['What?' I hear you murmour...no worries, he's a historian].

"In case my fancy words remain unclear, I am saying that the public health officials who do not understand the correct policy response to covid, represented by the Great Barrington Declaration, fail to do so because they have not studied the history of science or even medicine in sufficient detail to understand the scientific method. They are too ignorant to be humble. Case in point, John Snow himself would have signed the Great Barrington Declaration, not the John Snow Declaration."

Finally, a few choice words from Dr. Atlas Scott [great name!], who when interviewed had some ghastly and wrrying statistics e.g. "[in the USA]...an astonishing 25.5 percent of people between 18 and 24 contemplated suicide in the month of June alone" WTF? Lockdown's a winner...NOT!

"History will record the faces of the public health expertise as some of the most sinful, egregious, epic failures in the history of public policy. They have killed people with their lack of understanding and their lack of caring about not just the impact of cases of COVID-19, a virus that the overwhelming majority of people do well in. They never cared to considered the impact of the policy itself, and the policy itself has been a complete epic failure, and honestly some people say a crime against humanity — these people should be held accountable for what they did."

Winter is Coming.

OMG, outbreak overreaction overtly outed...

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Just wow. Lockdown Sceptics have a code review of Professor Neil Ferguson's Model...not good, no wonder he quickly resigned and hid (lucky the affair came along to help bail him out); the comments are good!

Conclusions. All papers based on this code should be retracted immediately. Imperial’s modelling efforts should be reset with a new team that isn’t under Professor Ferguson, and which has a commitment to replicable results with published code from day one.

On a personal level, I’d go further and suggest that all academic epidemiology be defunded. This sort of work is best done by the insurance sector. Insurers employ modellers and data scientists, but also employ managers whose job is to decide whether a model is accurate enough for real world usage and professional software engineers to ensure model software is properly tested, understandable and so on. Academic efforts don’t have these people, and the results speak for themselves.

Hat-tip: WUWT . More good comments.



P.S. Don't bother looking up the author Sue Denim... Sue Denim = Pseu Donym, teehee.

OMG, outbreak overreaction overtly outed...

---

Just wow. Lockdown Sceptics have a code review of Professor Neil Ferguson's Model...not good, no wonder he quickly resigned and hid (lucky the affair came along to help bail him out); the comments are good!

Conclusions. All papers based on this code should be retracted immediately. Imperial’s modelling efforts should be reset with a new team that isn’t under Professor Ferguson, and which has a commitment to replicable results with published code from day one. On a personal level, I’d go further and suggest that all academic epidemiology be defunded. This sort of work is best done by the insurance sector. Insurers employ modellers and data scientists, but also employ managers whose job is to decide whether a model is accurate enough for real world usage and professional software engineers to ensure model software is properly tested, understandable and so on. Academic efforts don’t have these people, and the results speak for themselves.

Hat-tip: WUWT . More good comments.

P.S. Don't bother looking up the author Sue Denim... Sue Denim = Pseu Donym, teehee.

Official observance...

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...of Octoraro Orphie? Or is it Phil? Anyhoo, today is Groundhog Day: "The first reported news of a Groundhog Day observance was arguably made by the Punxsutawney Spirit newspaper of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, in 1886"...not that we in the UK celebrate it, but we know about it. The only real reason I'm posting about it is the cartoon below, LOL.

Although I also notice the date and time and feel oddly excited. Plus today is the 33rd day in this, a Leap year, with 333 days to go...



Update 3 a.m.: Talking of The Donald, I thought this was interesting from The Last Refuge (CTH); I wonder whether the US media will ignore - much the same way as UK media have studiously ignored any good news re Brexit - the State of The Union address as they have done previously for Trump. The SOTU is on Tuesday: the 1111th day of the Donald's administration. The numbers again.

Official observance...

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...of Octoraro Orphie? Or is it Phil? Anyhoo, today is Groundhog Day: "The first reported news of a Groundhog Day observance was arguably made by the Punxsutawney Spirit newspaper of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, in 1886"...not that we in the UK celebrate it, but we know about it. The only real reason I'm posting about it is the cartoon below, LOL.

Although I also notice the date and time and feel oddly excited. Plus today is the 33rd day in this, a Leap year, with 333 days to go...

Update 3 a.m.: Talking of The Donald, I thought this was interesting from The Last Refuge (CTH); I wonder whether the US media will ignore - much the same way as UK media have studiously ignored any good news re Brexit - the State of The Union address as they have done previously for Trump. The SOTU is on Tuesday: the 1111th day of the Donald's administration. The numbers again.

Oxyopia orthosis...

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Well it's here, the end of the 13th Baktun...from that link (along with all the date calculations): "The Maya were a very advanced civilization: outstanding architects "they built the tallest pyramid in the world, La Danta at El Mirador, ['prepare to be amazed'] not surpassed in height until the first skyscraper was erected in 1885...."They were excellent astronomers -their calculations of the solar year have been the most precise of all human history until the invention of very modern instruments of space exploration. They were stunning mathematicians - invented the combined use of the positional numeral system and the zero, centuries before any other civilization."

And they predicted 'it will be the end' this 13 Baktun (December 21, 2012).

The news already is "the end" is a myth but - presuming our 24 hour/day units are compatible - we don't know yet: the Maya were in Central America so at least 6 hours time difference and we'll have to wait until the end of their day before we really know...so by 6 a.m. on 22/12/12 in the UK well know...if we wake up. Then again, maybe that Maya guy just meant 'it will be the end...of this calendar, make a new one*'!



* They're cyclic anyway so don't end...d'oh.

Oxyopia orthosis...

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Well it's here, the end of the 13th Baktun...from that link (along with all the date calculations): "The Maya were a very advanced civilization: outstanding architects "they built the tallest pyramid in the world, La Danta at El Mirador, ['prepare to be amazed'] not surpassed in height until the first skyscraper was erected in 1885...."They were excellent astronomers -their calculations of the solar year have been the most precise of all human history until the invention of very modern instruments of space exploration. They were stunning mathematicians - invented the combined use of the positional numeral system and the zero, centuries before any other civilization." And they predicted 'it will be the end' this 13 Baktun (December 21, 2012). The news already is "the end" is a myth but - presuming our 24 hour/day units are compatible - we don't know yet: the Maya were in Central America so at least 6 hours time difference and we'll have to wait until the end of their day before we really know...so by 6 a.m. on 22/12/12 in the UK well know...if we wake up. Then again, maybe that Maya guy just meant 'it will be the end...of this calendar, make a new one*'!

* They're cyclic anyway so don't end...d'oh.

Oncoming ochlesis...

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Not quite but in one respect the 'science' is settled; there need be no more discussion: "The immigration lobby are getting desperately short of arguments to set against the huge costs of mass immigration"... "Immigration caps don’t hamper the economic recovery. Why pretend otherwise?" [Link]

Oncoming ochlesis...

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Not quite but in one respect the 'science' is settled; there need be no more discussion: "The immigration lobby are getting desperately short of arguments to set against the huge costs of mass immigration"... "Immigration caps don’t hamper the economic recovery. Why pretend otherwise?" [Link]

Obelizing obvious obscurantism...

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[Edited: 'dead' image/video removed]
...mark as spurious the clear prevention of enlightenment. Such astounding obscurantism as displayed by union backed lefty Dr. Éoin Clarke (a PhD no less**). 'Plankety-Plank' as Matt at Anna Raccoon says and "it is incredible that more ‘journalists’ continue to use him as a source"...you know the sort of journalist of course. The comments are great. The data is HERE and the image shows how surprisingly good the figures really are.



**A PhD in 'Irish Republican Women 1969-83', surely not?

Obelizing obvious obscurantism...

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[Edited: 'dead' image/video removed] ...mark as spurious the clear prevention of enlightenment. Such astounding obscurantism as displayed by union backed lefty Dr. Éoin Clarke (a PhD no less**). 'Plankety-Plank' as Matt at Anna Raccoon says and "it is incredible that more ‘journalists’ continue to use him as a source"...you know the sort of journalist of course. The comments are great. The data is HERE and the image shows how surprisingly good the figures really are.

**A PhD in 'Irish Republican Women 1969-83', surely not?