Optophobia over oncoming omnishambles...

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i.e. scared to look at the political earthquake that is coming. Numbers are amazing, hopefully the actual results will be even more so. Anyhoo...



Good piece at CapX from Matt Singh: "The polls point towards a dramatic realignment. Are they right?" "Two of the three latest polls have shown the major parties’ combined share dropping below 50 per cent... ...This is extreme by historical standards – the only precedent came at the height of the SDP search after the Crosby by-election in 1981, when the equivalent number was 46.5 per cent. That aside, there hasn’t been anything comparable to this level of fragmentation in Britain since polling began 80 years ago."

 

The polls point towards a dramatic realignment: Matt Singh on CapX

I disagree on one thing in Matt's excellent article: "However, the Liberal Democrats are also picking up votes... While it can be debated whether these gains are solely due to Brexit, it is clear that the movement is not solely on the Leave side." Hmmm, I wouldn't mind betting that the LD gains are where there is not another 'protest vote' available and people put their 'x' by LD because they aren't CON or LAB. And of course we all know the polling accuracy of recent years hasn't exactly been much to crow about.

Optophobia over oncoming omnishambles...

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i.e. scared to look at the political earthquake that is coming. Numbers are amazing, hopefully the actual results will be even more so. Anyhoo...

Good piece at CapX from Matt Singh: "The polls point towards a dramatic realignment. Are they right?" "Two of the three latest polls have shown the major parties’ combined share dropping below 50 per cent... ...This is extreme by historical standards – the only precedent came at the height of the SDP search after the Crosby by-election in 1981, when the equivalent number was 46.5 per cent. That aside, there hasn’t been anything comparable to this level of fragmentation in Britain since polling began 80 years ago."
 

The polls point towards a dramatic realignment: Matt Singh on CapX

I disagree on one thing in Matt's excellent article: "However, the Liberal Democrats are also picking up votes... While it can be debated whether these gains are solely due to Brexit, it is clear that the movement is not solely on the Leave side." Hmmm, I wouldn't mind betting that the LD gains are where there is not another 'protest vote' available and people put their 'x' by LD because they aren't CON or LAB. And of course we all know the polling accuracy of recent years hasn't exactly been much to crow about.

Only one outlier...

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Interesting stuff: How Britain voted on May 7th – the Ipsos MORI guide (click image to enlarge but better to see it HERE at Political Betting unless you're eagle-eyed). Not much we didn't already know/ suspect; personally I find it odd that 65% of BME still voted Labour although this is lower than in 2010 when they got 68% (and this was down from much higher historical levels: see conclusions in Runnymede Trust PDF also re 2010); presumably another reason for New Labour's disgraceful, cynical and probably treasonous immigration policy (MW briefing paper) [yes, I know the Coalition did nothing to reverse it].



This time the Conservatives increased their share of the BME vote: maybe just a result of the collapse of the Lib Dem vote...[edit] more info HERE re BME split: black and minority ethnic identifying as Christians plus Muslims preferring Labour but Hindus and Sikhs preferring the Conservatives to Labour, again IMHO, no real surprise.



Also, back to the PB link: "Meanwhile the British Polling Council has announced details of its inquiry into what went wrong with the polls." Could the EU IN/OUT polls be equally flawed?

Only one outlier...

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Interesting stuff: How Britain voted on May 7th – the Ipsos MORI guide (click image to enlarge but better to see it HERE at Political Betting unless you're eagle-eyed). Not much we didn't already know/ suspect; personally I find it odd that 65% of BME still voted Labour although this is lower than in 2010 when they got 68% (and this was down from much higher historical levels: see conclusions in Runnymede Trust PDF also re 2010); presumably another reason for New Labour's disgraceful, cynical and probably treasonous immigration policy (MW briefing paper) [yes, I know the Coalition did nothing to reverse it].

This time the Conservatives increased their share of the BME vote: maybe just a result of the collapse of the Lib Dem vote...[edit] more info HERE re BME split: black and minority ethnic identifying as Christians plus Muslims preferring Labour but Hindus and Sikhs preferring the Conservatives to Labour, again IMHO, no real surprise.

Also, back to the PB link: "Meanwhile the British Polling Council has announced details of its inquiry into what went wrong with the polls." Could the EU IN/OUT polls be equally flawed?

Obvious offences; open omissions...

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Image credit Horatio at the News Hub [Link]

The most corrupt elections for 150 years writes Raedwald. He goes on to note that voter registration problems will skew the result, adding:

"...there are 3m folk on the rolls who should not be there and 3m missing who should be.** And add to this the total cock-up over getting postal ballots out to up to a million expats after 20th April that means many who wish to vote are unable to do so."

As one commentator there says, with fixed-term parliaments they know 5 years in advance when the election is going to be, even if it has to change the actual date by a week or even a month or two there is no excuse not to have these delivered anything up to a year before the election! Postal voting (from 2001) plus mass immigration ("...voting fraud and intimidation are rife in certain Commonwealth population constituencies", LOL, great way of putting it!) that can be laid squarely at the feet of New Labour, Blair, Brown and Co. have made things so bad but the Coalition haven't even got near sorting out the mess (Lib Dem dummy-spitting to blame for the "failure to eliminate Labour's corrupt advantage from Electoral Quotients").



Then we have Birmingham Muslims (city with 1 million + population, 20% Muslim) ordered to vote Labour and the chronic bias of the BBC [Google search] and my blood pressure is through the roof.



** Info from Michael Pinto-Duschinsky (Senior Consultant on Constitutional Affairs to Policy Exchange). Electoral Omission study [PDF] is well worth a read, depressing though it is: on the UK Electoral Register there are 13 to 15.5 Million Errors (doubled since 2006); the "dramatic decline in the quality of the electoral registers between 2006 and 2014"; voting fraud is rife and The Electoral Commission is "still a flawed institution".

Obvious offences; open omissions...

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Image credit Horatio at the News Hub [Link]

The most corrupt elections for 150 years writes Raedwald. He goes on to note that voter registration problems will skew the result, adding:

"...there are 3m folk on the rolls who should not be there and 3m missing who should be.** And add to this the total cock-up over getting postal ballots out to up to a million expats after 20th April that means many who wish to vote are unable to do so."

As one commentator there says, with fixed-term parliaments they know 5 years in advance when the election is going to be, even if it has to change the actual date by a week or even a month or two there is no excuse not to have these delivered anything up to a year before the election! Postal voting (from 2001) plus mass immigration ("...voting fraud and intimidation are rife in certain Commonwealth population constituencies", LOL, great way of putting it!) that can be laid squarely at the feet of New Labour, Blair, Brown and Co. have made things so bad but the Coalition haven't even got near sorting out the mess (Lib Dem dummy-spitting to blame for the "failure to eliminate Labour's corrupt advantage from Electoral Quotients").

Then we have Birmingham Muslims (city with 1 million + population, 20% Muslim) ordered to vote Labour and the chronic bias of the BBC [Google search] and my blood pressure is through the roof.

** Info from Michael Pinto-Duschinsky (Senior Consultant on Constitutional Affairs to Policy Exchange). Electoral Omission study [PDF] is well worth a read, depressing though it is: on the UK Electoral Register there are 13 to 15.5 Million Errors (doubled since 2006); the "dramatic decline in the quality of the electoral registers between 2006 and 2014"; voting fraud is rife and The Electoral Commission is "still a flawed institution".

Only one option...

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Everyone seems sure we're on the way to another hung parliament and another coalition of one mix of hues or another. There is only one option, surely (apart from the obvious best options of a Conservative majority or CON/UKIP Coalition)? I cannot believe the electorate would 'cut off their nose to spite their face'; well see. An Interesting article in the Spectator about newspapers and how they 'vote', [Link] or how they "generally... serve up what they believe their readers want". Nothing too earth-shattering about perceived political bent of the various newspapers; the only exception and 'gamble' as such in the current UK general Election campaign is that of The Independent, who have opted for 'more of the same'.




Update 7th May: Interesting follow-up: Order-order today has THIS. The graphic is from 7,000 articles analysed which found that The Mirror was the most partisan newspaper. Again, nothing we didn't already know but good to have it 'confirmed'.

Only one option...

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Everyone seems sure we're on the way to another hung parliament and another coalition of one mix of hues or another. There is only one option, surely (apart from the obvious best options of a Conservative majority or CON/UKIP Coalition)? I cannot believe the electorate would 'cut off their nose to spite their face'; well see. An Interesting article in the Spectator about newspapers and how they 'vote', [Link] or how they "generally... serve up what they believe their readers want". Nothing too earth-shattering about perceived political bent of the various newspapers; the only exception and 'gamble' as such in the current UK general Election campaign is that of The Independent, who have opted for 'more of the same'.

Update 7th May: Interesting follow-up: Order-order today has THIS. The graphic is from 7,000 articles analysed which found that The Mirror was the most partisan newspaper. Again, nothing we didn't already know but good to have it 'confirmed'.

Ows observation V...

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Most if not all of the media today seem to be playing last night's House of Commons vote as a 'loss' for British Prime Minister David Cameron. Some are slamming Miliband's duplicity. I see it differently: Cameron recalled Parliament, had the nerve to ask for a debate and a vote on whether the UK should commit to yet another war; to commit funds and ultimately soldiers lives in Syria. The image (click to enlarge) shows a very close thing, unlucky 13 but with 91 absent. However, this is very clearly that rare and wonderful thing, democracy in action; Cameron will respect/is respecting that decision (I will refrain from commenting on various examples of gross, sickening, lying hypocrisy of more than a few Labour MPs). To me he is in a win/win: whether the shit hits the fan or not he has tried to do what he thinks is right but, like the fair and decent man man in the pub, is held back by his friends and bystanders as he struggles to give the bounder what he deserves.



Update: well said Quentin.

Ows observation V...

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Most if not all of the media today seem to be playing last night's House of Commons vote as a 'loss' for British Prime Minister David Cameron. Some are slamming Miliband's duplicity. I see it differently: Cameron recalled Parliament, had the nerve to ask for a debate and a vote on whether the UK should commit to yet another war; to commit funds and ultimately soldiers lives in Syria. The image (click to enlarge) shows a very close thing, unlucky 13 but with 91 absent. However, this is very clearly that rare and wonderful thing, democracy in action; Cameron will respect/is respecting that decision (I will refrain from commenting on various examples of gross, sickening, lying hypocrisy of more than a few Labour MPs). To me he is in a win/win: whether the shit hits the fan or not he has tried to do what he thinks is right but, like the fair and decent man man in the pub, is held back by his friends and bystanders as he struggles to give the bounder what he deserves.

Update: well said Quentin.

Opposition opportunities...

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[LINK] Wow, just wow. It is sure to hold for the European elections in 2014, and by then we will presumably have other indicators as to whether it will hold for the General Election 2015...

Opposition opportunities...

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[LINK] Wow, just wow. It is sure to hold for the European elections in 2014, and by then we will presumably have other indicators as to whether it will hold for the General Election 2015...

Olamic optimist...

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"I am an optimist. It does not seem too much use being anything else"; that quote Winston Churchill sums me up really although I do become bitter and twisted fairly regularly these days; a case in point was the adulation shown because some half-rate New Labour has-been decide to go away...WTF? Anyway, the point of the post is the following: "For first time since Osbo’s March 2012 budget more people say they want a CON majority than a LAB one", admittedly only 29% to 28% (and 41% to 35% still want LAB in next government!) but at least it's a start and they need to start saying more about what they have achieved...I thought THIS was very New Labour! The only thing everyone seems to agree on: the LibDems as a coalition partner for anyone is not an popular option!

Olamic optimist...

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"I am an optimist. It does not seem too much use being anything else"; that quote Winston Churchill sums me up really although I do become bitter and twisted fairly regularly these days; a case in point was the adulation shown because some half-rate New Labour has-been decide to go away...WTF? Anyway, the point of the post is the following: "For first time since Osbo’s March 2012 budget more people say they want a CON majority than a LAB one", admittedly only 29% to 28% (and 41% to 35% still want LAB in next government!) but at least it's a start and they need to start saying more about what they have achieved...I thought THIS was very New Labour! The only thing everyone seems to agree on: the LibDems as a coalition partner for anyone is not an popular option!

Ohio Obama overvoting...

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I take it back: last week when I wrote "All the efforts to save Obama is shaping up to be worse than the Venezuelan shenanigans" I was wrong: it's ALREADY worse! There are already reports in three states (one of those being the immensely important - in election terms - Ohio) of early-voting problems with machine malfunctions: votes for Romney going to Obama. Hey, no worries though..."Once the machines were re-calibrated, however, the issue seemed to go away." I don't often quote the scriptures but it does seem appropriate: Jesus wept. (image credit Roberto Nasser)

Ohio Obama overvoting...

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I take it back: last week when I wrote "All the efforts to save Obama is shaping up to be worse than the Venezuelan shenanigans" I was wrong: it's ALREADY worse! There are already reports in three states (one of those being the immensely important - in election terms - Ohio) of early-voting problems with machine malfunctions: votes for Romney going to Obama. Hey, no worries though..."Once the machines were re-calibrated, however, the issue seemed to go away." I don't often quote the scriptures but it does seem appropriate: Jesus wept. (image credit Roberto Nasser)

Oh...

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Bugger, Krusty wasn't kancelled...but something isn't right. Was voter turnout really so high? Exit polls gave Capriles a 3% win...could they be SO wrong? Were all the votes really counted that quickly: the result was announced at 10:38 pm on election day (at 7:30 pm  people were still voting - the voting system is very efficient though)? Everyone is too quiet...both sides. Anyway, just on the numbers, remember this post: "Who knows what actual advantage this will give for or against but as an hypothetical estimate, if all parties are given similar support then as much as 10% of the total vote will be null and void!".  Chavez won by 9%...

Oh...

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Bugger, Krusty wasn't kancelled...but something isn't right. Was voter turnout really so high? Exit polls gave Capriles a 3% win...could they be SO wrong? Were all the votes really counted that quickly: the result was announced at 10:38 pm on election day (at 7:30 pm  people were still voting - the voting system is very efficient though)? Everyone is too quiet...both sides. Anyway, just on the numbers, remember this post: "Who knows what actual advantage this will give for or against but as an hypothetical estimate, if all parties are given similar support then as much as 10% of the total vote will be null and void!".  Chavez won by 9%...

Other orbits...

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I am hoping the successful launch of another Venezuelan satellite this week will not overshadow the coming main event. I doubt it and in fact the launch - from China's Jiuquan launch center near Mongolia - been a bit of a damp squib. The better news is following Capriles round the country and today "Llegó el turno de Caracas!", It's Caracas' turn; if early photos and news are anything to go by it's going to be big. The coming 7-O isn't a shocking football score but possibly the most important date in Venezuelan elections for decades. I'm hoping Krusty Gets Kancelled.

Other orbits...

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I am hoping the successful launch of another Venezuelan satellite this week will not overshadow the coming main event. I doubt it and in fact the launch - from China's Jiuquan launch center near Mongolia - been a bit of a damp squib. The better news is following Capriles round the country and today "Llegó el turno de Caracas!", It's Caracas' turn; if early photos and news are anything to go by it's going to be big. The coming 7-O isn't a shocking football score but possibly the most important date in Venezuelan elections for decades. I'm hoping Krusty Gets Kancelled.