Obvallated oakus: oppignorating ourselves...

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2.5 trillion. Two point five TRILLION. That is now the UK national debt. No matter that we see chronic wastage everywhere: on Net Zero (Milliband brothers clown show), IT failures, Quantative Easing, Bank bailouts, HS2, Furlough (yes, we won't forget), Track and Trace, (is Hancock in gaol?), more levels of government, more expenses, more overpaid shysters, etc, etc...etc (and NO it has nothing to do with Liz ousted-in-a-soft-coup Truss). [edit: Every WEEK the interest is 100 billion...Every. Week. ] Sorry: Last year debt interest was 100 billion. 

"In the time it takes you to read this sentence, the national debt has increased by more than £20,000."

Or almost 16 million quid per HOUR. The UK debt clock can be see HERE and I recall when it passed one trillion; yes, at 16 minutes past five in the afternoon of 17th Jan 2011 to be exact; how can I be so sure? Because I blogged an update back then. 

The Tax Payer's Alliance have relaunched their "ticking debt clock! 15 years after our original ground breaking campaign publicising the extent of the UK’s national debt." Yippee! 

Searching through the archives it isn't hard to see where the problem began to skyrocket, although to be clear it is decades of red and blue and all governments are to blame. It is just a shame The Guardian have removed all the comments (OK, it is 11 years ago - ahem - but I would have liked to have reread an Old Ows opinion and my 'highly recommended' points: presumably NOT as petty as this: 

"What irritated me was that in the image [...] they had squeezed the picture of [Gordon] Brown far to the left making him appear over only those 'good' years of surplus (which was when, as we all know, he followed Conservative spending plans) and have the picture of Darling spread over most of the Crash Gordon years and we ALL now know, and it isn't hard to see, that Britain's debt soared from 2000 and Brown was to blame. It is petty things like the positioning of the Chancellors' pictures that annoy me (yes, yes, OK, I'm small minded and petty when it comes to Gordon Brown). 

Yes, despite the Conservatives not helping (Blue Labour) I still blame New Labour (Blair, Brown et el...) and you won't change my mind.

Anyway, you may have heard of the Big Mac Index, well the UK national debt (at this moment in time...on no, now it's gone up...and using the World Population Clock) could buy 72 Big Macs, for each and every single living person on the planet...yes, that's the reason for the image above :-) 

Opus on opaque Ostpolitik...

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Not looking good. John [The Slog] in outstanding form on 'Germany and the Russian Debt Bomb'. THIS is Part 2. 

The 'appetiser': "you probably failed to notice this, but Russia paid its due debt installment in full last Friday. You probably didn’t see that, because the MSM blanked it." [sic]

The entrée: "In a nutshell, driving Russia into default risks a nuclear chain reaction that is impossible to predict….and anyone telling you otherwise (eg the Pentagon) is lying." 

The conclusion: "...there is one depressing certainty in 21st century life: our economic system, US democracy, EU fiscal stability, media investigation, bureaucratic rules, banking credibility, corporate governance, NATO information, health science, civil policing, military intelligence and financial sectors are all irreparably compromised by greed, mendacity and unachievable globalist megalomania." 

I am presuming too that you have all noticed that China, India (and very early on Pakistan, "so much excitement") and now the Emirates are all overtly not-quite-cosying-up to Russia but certainly not turning them away and making gains while the EU and the UK are failing and going backwards at every level, even propaganda. 

And off topic but really very much on topic, you know what hasn't gone away:

"The choice is ours. We can either go back to sleep and follow the shiny baubles of the latest breaking news on the MSM news feeds or we can continue to focus on the creation of the biosecurity state..."

Opus on opaque Ostpolitik...

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Not looking good. John [The Slog] in outstanding form on 'Germany and the Russian Debt Bomb'. THIS is Part 2. 

The 'appetiser': "you probably failed to notice this, but Russia paid its due debt installment in full last Friday. You probably didn’t see that, because the MSM blanked it." [sic]

The entrée: "In a nutshell, driving Russia into default risks a nuclear chain reaction that is impossible to predict….and anyone telling you otherwise (eg the Pentagon) is lying." 

The conclusion: "...there is one depressing certainty in 21st century life: our economic system, US democracy, EU fiscal stability, media investigation, bureaucratic rules, banking credibility, corporate governance, NATO information, health science, civil policing, military intelligence and financial sectors are all irreparably compromised by greed, mendacity and unachievable globalist megalomania." 

I am presuming too that you have all noticed that China, India (and very early on Pakistan, "so much excitement") and now the Emirates are all overtly not-quite-cosying-up to Russia but certainly not turning them away and making gains while the EU and the UK are failing and going backwards at every level, even propaganda. 

And off topic but really very much on topic, you know what hasn't gone away:

"The choice is ours. We can either go back to sleep and follow the shiny baubles of the latest breaking news on the MSM news feeds or we can continue to focus on the creation of the biosecurity state..."

Owning our owed outgoings...

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The belt-tightening after 2008 hasn't continued; did it really even start? All I see and have seen over the last decade is people spending like crazy, wanting everything now, the austerity that never was...there may be trouble ahead.



Click on image to link to article. You will find more infographics at Statista



"The rate at which UK institutions, households and businesses are borrowing money is greater than that of all other OECD countries. This fact is alarming some economists not only because the rate of UK borrowing is high against the country’s GDP, but also because households, business and state coffers are running a deficit simultaneously for the first time since the 1980s"....



" Not included in the data by the OECD are overseas investments by Britons as well as foreigners’ financial business in the UK. Here, another troublesome statistic emerges. While the UK had been running a net profit for overseas lending and borrowing in the past, the situation has reversed since the financial crisis."

Owning our owed outgoings...

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The belt-tightening after 2008 hasn't continued; did it really even start? All I see and have seen over the last decade is people spending like crazy, wanting everything now, the austerity that never was...there may be trouble ahead.

Click on image to link to article. You will find more infographics at Statista

"The rate at which UK institutions, households and businesses are borrowing money is greater than that of all other OECD countries. This fact is alarming some economists not only because the rate of UK borrowing is high against the country’s GDP, but also because households, business and state coffers are running a deficit simultaneously for the first time since the 1980s"....

" Not included in the data by the OECD are overseas investments by Britons as well as foreigners’ financial business in the UK. Here, another troublesome statistic emerges. While the UK had been running a net profit for overseas lending and borrowing in the past, the situation has reversed since the financial crisis."

Outstanding Osborne...

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It looks a bit blurred; click to enlarge for clearer view...

Britain is now running a current budget surplus. OK, I know it wasn't all George Osborne but credit where it is due. An outstanding achievement, albeit slightly later than originally forecast. And guess what, the BBC are actually reporting it, although not on their Home Page, nor main News page and already a long way down the list on the UK Politics page. And, as it is the BBC, with the twist of the knife in the headline link "Cameron and Osborne hail austerity plan" giving it the 'evil' look that allows Labour fools in with such ridiculous comments: "Labour accused them of 'egotistical boasting' while families suffered." FFS, can't think why cuts in spending were necessary, can you, Labour Party? And the plan was NEVER 'austerity' anyway, merely cutting back gross excess and trimming. And when they claim local authorities are closing libraries due to nasty Tory austerity cuts ask them why the same Councils have gambled with public money (hundreds of millions in savings in Icelandic banks revealed after the crash, by 2014 they had most back) and are currently spending hundreds of millions on "punting like drunken sailors" on "hedge fund-style activity". [2017 FT, requires registration]

Anyway, [edited] research published by the International Monetary Fund "Climbing Out of Debt, A new study offers more evidence that cutting spending is less harmful to growth than raising taxes" [LINK] [PDF] said Britain set an example for other countries to follow in slashing the deficit by cutting public spending, rather than raising taxes. [DT] "Our conclusion runs against the basic Keynesian message, which implies that spending cuts are more recessionary than tax increases"... "On the contrary, our study confirms that expenditure-based plans generally were less harmful to growth than tax-based plans.".



Well done David Cameron, well done George Osborne and team. Well done the Conservative Party.



Despite Brexit :-)

Outstanding Osborne...

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It looks a bit blurred; click to enlarge for clearer view...

Britain is now running a current budget surplus. OK, I know it wasn't all George Osborne but credit where it is due. An outstanding achievement, albeit slightly later than originally forecast. And guess what, the BBC are actually reporting it, although not on their Home Page, nor main News page and already a long way down the list on the UK Politics page. And, as it is the BBC, with the twist of the knife in the headline link "Cameron and Osborne hail austerity plan" giving it the 'evil' look that allows Labour fools in with such ridiculous comments: "Labour accused them of 'egotistical boasting' while families suffered." FFS, can't think why cuts in spending were necessary, can you, Labour Party? And the plan was NEVER 'austerity' anyway, merely cutting back gross excess and trimming. And when they claim local authorities are closing libraries due to nasty Tory austerity cuts ask them why the same Councils have gambled with public money (hundreds of millions in savings in Icelandic banks revealed after the crash, by 2014 they had most back) and are currently spending hundreds of millions on "punting like drunken sailors" on "hedge fund-style activity". [2017 FT, requires registration]

Anyway, [edited] research published by the International Monetary Fund "Climbing Out of Debt, A new study offers more evidence that cutting spending is less harmful to growth than raising taxes" [LINK] [PDF] said Britain set an example for other countries to follow in slashing the deficit by cutting public spending, rather than raising taxes. [DT] "Our conclusion runs against the basic Keynesian message, which implies that spending cuts are more recessionary than tax increases"... "On the contrary, our study confirms that expenditure-based plans generally were less harmful to growth than tax-based plans.".

Well done David Cameron, well done George Osborne and team. Well done the Conservative Party.

Despite Brexit :-)

Owing options...

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Another interesting money related graph; not the debt (see Owning outstanding) but - look away Venezuelans - the world's riskiest sovereign debt (the Business Insider graph uses cost prices of CDS (credit-default swaps), "which are derivatives that pay out if a borrower defaults.". Hat-tip Caracas Chronicles where DAUZ has a an great explanation of how CDS work for those not so au fait with the financial lingo and definitions.

Owing options...

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Another interesting money related graph; not the debt (see Owning outstanding) but - look away Venezuelans - the world's riskiest sovereign debt (the Business Insider graph uses cost prices of CDS (credit-default swaps), "which are derivatives that pay out if a borrower defaults.". Hat-tip Caracas Chronicles where DAUZ has a an great explanation of how CDS work for those not so au fait with the financial lingo and definitions.

Owning outstanding...

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Outstanding as in not yet paid! Interesting visualization of then nearly USD 60 T-T-Trillion world debt by country (note: the data comes from the IMF and only covers public government debt i.e. this excludes the debt of citizens, businesses and unfunded liabilities). It is also colour coded by region. As usual click to enlarge or see it courtesy of Visual Capitalist (Hat-tip Zero Hedge).



It goes with a previous image of the World Economy that isn't as relative as you'd think: Japan for instance with 6.18% of total economic production but has almost 20% of global debt; along with the USA the two countries account for just under 30% of the global economy but just under 50% of the global debt...and who owns that debt?



Next month Owsblog reaches it's 10 year birthday, pity I'm hardly managing a couple of blogposts a month! I've made excuses before and been busy before.  :-(

Owning outstanding...

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Outstanding as in not yet paid! Interesting visualization of then nearly USD 60 T-T-Trillion world debt by country (note: the data comes from the IMF and only covers public government debt i.e. this excludes the debt of citizens, businesses and unfunded liabilities). It is also colour coded by region. As usual click to enlarge or see it courtesy of Visual Capitalist (Hat-tip Zero Hedge).

It goes with a previous image of the World Economy that isn't as relative as you'd think: Japan for instance with 6.18% of total economic production but has almost 20% of global debt; along with the USA the two countries account for just under 30% of the global economy but just under 50% of the global debt...and who owns that debt?

Next month Owsblog reaches it's 10 year birthday, pity I'm hardly managing a couple of blogposts a month! I've made excuses before and been busy before.  :-(

Obit overshadows Osborne's optimistic outlook...

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No disrespect to Mandela but enough is being said elsewhere... everywhere, so I'll keep schtum [edit: 9pm] although if you have had enough of the fawning pap being spewed out in most media please read this from Charles Crawford. Yesterday had other news: the UK Chancellor George Osborne gave his Autumn Statement (Link: PDF) to Parliament on the state of the UK economy and the Coalition government's future plans. At a glance things are looking good despite BBC Peston's ludicrously negative report (and coordinated comments); he was presumably one of those BBC journalists prepared in advance (Link: PDF) by the assumed lefty (pinch of salt) IFS; (no doubt more from them on the BBC later ([edit]...later: haha, told you). The Taxpayers' Alliance briefing is broadly supportive (Link:PDF) but think Osborne 'must do more'; a key is the continued cutting the number and complexity of taxes: they say Tolley’s Tax Guide is now over 17,000 pages long. Particularly interesting is the TPA tax tracker: "Since the Coalition Government came to power in 2010, 509 tax hikes and 209 tax cuts have been announced". Two articles that IMHO are worth reading: Kamal Ahmed in the DT ("Be grateful that George Osborne did not unveil a Brownite master plan") and I also liked Rafael Behr's article in the NS: "...the macroeconomic indicators fuelling Conservative levity conceal real pain that will cost the government votes".

Obit overshadows Osborne's optimistic outlook...

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No disrespect to Mandela but enough is being said elsewhere... everywhere, so I'll keep schtum [edit: 9pm] although if you have had enough of the fawning pap being spewed out in most media please read this from Charles Crawford. Yesterday had other news: the UK Chancellor George Osborne gave his Autumn Statement (Link: PDF) to Parliament on the state of the UK economy and the Coalition government's future plans. At a glance things are looking good despite BBC Peston's ludicrously negative report (and coordinated comments); he was presumably one of those BBC journalists prepared in advance (Link: PDF) by the assumed lefty (pinch of salt) IFS; (no doubt more from them on the BBC later ([edit]...later: haha, told you). The Taxpayers' Alliance briefing is broadly supportive (Link:PDF) but think Osborne 'must do more'; a key is the continued cutting the number and complexity of taxes: they say Tolley’s Tax Guide is now over 17,000 pages long. Particularly interesting is the TPA tax tracker: "Since the Coalition Government came to power in 2010, 509 tax hikes and 209 tax cuts have been announced". Two articles that IMHO are worth reading: Kamal Ahmed in the DT ("Be grateful that George Osborne did not unveil a Brownite master plan") and I also liked Rafael Behr's article in the NS: "...the macroeconomic indicators fuelling Conservative levity conceal real pain that will cost the government votes".

Overly optimistic IV...

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Peter Spence at City A.M. replies to Will Hutton's overly optimistic alternative history Guardian article. Both are good and although we all can laugh at the latter, what he writes, albeit hypothetical, may have changed everything and saved us from the 'Credit Crunch'; I doubt it though because the straws loading the camel's back began in earnest in the late nineties. Anyhoo, what I hadn't seen before - and what is very very interesting - was the image left (click to enlarge, it's worth it) that accompanies the City A.M. piece, which shows a number of hypothetical monetary unions and how well their economies could be joined in a union: some are logically good fits but such random groups as economies of countries beginning with the letter "M" and all countries on earth along the latitude line 5th parallel north had more in common than the first 12 members of the euro! What set out to unite will ultimately divide, QED. 

Overly optimistic IV...

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Peter Spence at City A.M. replies to Will Hutton's overly optimistic alternative history Guardian article. Both are good and although we all can laugh at the latter, what he writes, albeit hypothetical, may have changed everything and saved us from the 'Credit Crunch'; I doubt it though because the straws loading the camel's back began in earnest in the late nineties. Anyhoo, what I hadn't seen before - and what is very very interesting - was the image left (click to enlarge, it's worth it) that accompanies the City A.M. piece, which shows a number of hypothetical monetary unions and how well their economies could be joined in a union: some are logically good fits but such random groups as economies of countries beginning with the letter "M" and all countries on earth along the latitude line 5th parallel north had more in common than the first 12 members of the euro! What set out to unite will ultimately divide, QED. 

Opiparous oration...

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Fox in the headless chicken house: good speech to the IEA today. Here is what he said in full. So, "Liam Fox urges spending freeze" (a freeze? Surely there were already cuts?) [BBC]

"Mr Fox's proposed freeze on all public spending - as against the current freeze for Whitehall departmental budgets - would cut spending in real terms by 2.5% a year. The current plan is for a 1% annual cut."

Ah. And, my favourite bit of his speech;

"We are all familiar with the issue and history of debt.  In 1997 Labour inherited a balanced budget on coming to office – indeed, it was a budget that was set to move into surplus...



...To make matters worse, the panic spending that Gordon Brown embarked upon in order to try to avoid his impending defeat, set a trajectory for spending that would see debts continue to mount at an alarming rate. 



Even with the coalition Government’s deficit reduction plans - which the current Labour leader has attended Trade Union rallies to protest against - the national debt will reach £1.4 trillion in 2015.



History will judge Gordon Brown and his disciples harshly."

I live in hope: the pike is sharpened; the city gates in view. More from Thomas Pascoe reporting [DT], "Dr Liam Fox is absolutely right when it comes to Labour's legacy of debt".

"They spent with abandon, rolling out the Socialist vision of a big state. But much worse; rather than diminishing the reliance that individuals have on the state, they purposely pushed the drug of welfare addiction to more and more people, ensnaring even the affluent middle classes... ..The expansion of welfare addiction is one of the most corrosive effects of socialism and it must not only be neutralised, but reversed."

However, many weren't impressed.

Opiparous oration...

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Fox in the headless chicken house: good speech to the IEA today. Here is what he said in full. So, "Liam Fox urges spending freeze" (a freeze? Surely there were already cuts?) [BBC]

"Mr Fox's proposed freeze on all public spending - as against the current freeze for Whitehall departmental budgets - would cut spending in real terms by 2.5% a year. The current plan is for a 1% annual cut."

Ah. And, my favourite bit of his speech;

"We are all familiar with the issue and history of debt.  In 1997 Labour inherited a balanced budget on coming to office – indeed, it was a budget that was set to move into surplus...

...To make matters worse, the panic spending that Gordon Brown embarked upon in order to try to avoid his impending defeat, set a trajectory for spending that would see debts continue to mount at an alarming rate. 

Even with the coalition Government’s deficit reduction plans - which the current Labour leader has attended Trade Union rallies to protest against - the national debt will reach £1.4 trillion in 2015.

History will judge Gordon Brown and his disciples harshly."

I live in hope: the pike is sharpened; the city gates in view. More from Thomas Pascoe reporting [DT], "Dr Liam Fox is absolutely right when it comes to Labour's legacy of debt".

"They spent with abandon, rolling out the Socialist vision of a big state. But much worse; rather than diminishing the reliance that individuals have on the state, they purposely pushed the drug of welfare addiction to more and more people, ensnaring even the affluent middle classes... ..The expansion of welfare addiction is one of the most corrosive effects of socialism and it must not only be neutralised, but reversed."

However, many weren't impressed.

Olamic orts of obvious osophy...

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Il n’y a pas d’alternative; "Margaret Thatcher’s words were delivered at a different time, but are as relevant as ever": there is no alternative. So concludes Tim Montgomerie's piece in The Times. There is no soft option: well worth a read, summarised here for those not subscribed. "But this [soon to be announced childcare initiatives, a single-tier state pension and help for elderly people to afford long-term care. Women will be the biggest beneficiaries of this programme] is gravy. The coalition’s meat and potatoes remains deficit reduction"; (indeed and don't mention the debt, which is a whole other ball-game!). Deficit reduction is the main objective and must continue despite hiccups and stalling due to international economic strife but also lack of will/commitment (I'll put this down - maybe wrongly - to the yellow part of the coalition). Anyway, I know the feeling: my own deficit reduction hits the same barriers every Christmas :-). Tim's main point is the comparison with France (and Ed Miliband's hopes of a lefty buddy across the water) but "Rather than delivering a sea change in European economic policy Mr Hollande has had to push through France’s toughest budget since the recessionary period of the 1980s."

"The truth is simple. Electorates in the highly indebted West don’t face a choice between anti-austerity politicians and pro-austerity politicians. The real choice is between politicians who are willing to tell voters the truth and politicians who pretend that more than a decade of over-borrowing can be wished away." 

If Mr Hollande has failed them, the international Left still hope that President Obama offers the world a pain-free alternative. Like Mr Hollande, Barack Obama campaigned on the big lie that higher taxes on the rich would solve the deficit."

Plus ça change...

Olamic orts of obvious osophy...

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Il n’y a pas d’alternative; "Margaret Thatcher’s words were delivered at a different time, but are as relevant as ever": there is no alternative. So concludes Tim Montgomerie's piece in The Times. There is no soft option: well worth a read, summarised here for those not subscribed. "But this [soon to be announced childcare initiatives, a single-tier state pension and help for elderly people to afford long-term care. Women will be the biggest beneficiaries of this programme] is gravy. The coalition’s meat and potatoes remains deficit reduction"; (indeed and don't mention the debt, which is a whole other ball-game!). Deficit reduction is the main objective and must continue despite hiccups and stalling due to international economic strife but also lack of will/commitment (I'll put this down - maybe wrongly - to the yellow part of the coalition). Anyway, I know the feeling: my own deficit reduction hits the same barriers every Christmas :-). Tim's main point is the comparison with France (and Ed Miliband's hopes of a lefty buddy across the water) but "Rather than delivering a sea change in European economic policy Mr Hollande has had to push through France’s toughest budget since the recessionary period of the 1980s."

"The truth is simple. Electorates in the highly indebted West don’t face a choice between anti-austerity politicians and pro-austerity politicians. The real choice is between politicians who are willing to tell voters the truth and politicians who pretend that more than a decade of over-borrowing can be wished away." 

If Mr Hollande has failed them, the international Left still hope that President Obama offers the world a pain-free alternative. Like Mr Hollande, Barack Obama campaigned on the big lie that higher taxes on the rich would solve the deficit."

Plus ça change...

Oligodontous odorivector...

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image credit from HERE.

It seems CFK is getting uppity, I...wonder...why, and need further distraction to hide the coming economic disaster (another!) from the Argentine population: she has published a letter/ad to David Cameron in today's Guardian (hat-tip Guido) and other newspapers and 'seems to have been prepared in absolute secrecy to ensure maximum impact'. This article in the Guardian has a link [PDF] to the letter/ad, a letter which begins:

"One hundred and eighty years ago on this same date, January 3rd, in a blatant exercise of 19th-century colonialism, Argentina was forcibly stripped of the Malvinas Islands, which are situated 14,000 km (8700 miles) away from London."

Stop right there! Argentina, as it is now known, didn't exist 180 years ago. Take a look at the diagram below which shows de facto control over the Falkland Islands since 1760 (records have British presence - but not officially established - some 70 years prior to this. This diagram and a very clear de facto timeline HERE (Wiki). Important: please note the (i) orange and (ii) single black line 'Argentina' sections prior to continuous UK control:

(i) this refers to the two and one third years of control by the United Provinces of the Rio de la Plata, which constituted at various stages all of modern day Paraguay and Uruguay, most of Bolivia and parts of Brazil and Chile: the only fly in the ointment is that the UK officially recognized independence of United Provinces in 1825 (along with a Treaty of Friendship, Commerce, and Navigation, signed by the marvellously named Woodbine Parish), but "like the US did not recognise the full extent of the territory claimed by the new state." Throughout the entire the war of independence period (1810-1831) there were constant serious conflicts between various ever-changing factions about how the state should be organised and what political aims the revolutionary governments should have; this ceased to exist in 1831. (ii) this ONE MONTH period refers to the Argentine Confederation, a loose Confederation of Provinces with no head of state; for much of which time Buenos Aires considered itself an independent state.



OK, all the above can easily be rubbished as both the above are considered former names of what is the modern Argentina, well according to their 1853 constitution anyway (Article 35, page 6 [PDF]), and I imagine eighty to ninety percent of countries in the world would have to hand something back to someone using the same principles. However, there is the 1850 Convention of Settlement, signed in 1849 that seems to make clear the re-establishment of 'perfect Relations of Friendship between Her Britannic Majesty and the Argentine Confederation'; to settle "the existing differences" between the two countries and in fact the Convention is understood to concede Argentina's claim to the Falkland Islands.** Off on a tangent: we won't mention their genocide of the Mapuches during the Argentine annexation of Patagonia in 1870.



**References (Wiki):

Roger Lawton LLB(Hons), M.Phil. "The Falkland Islands History & Timeline". [Link] Superb info!

The Falklands / Malvinas Case: Breaking the Deadlock in the Anglo-Argentine by Roberto C. Laver, page 123

Humbert F. Burzio: “Rozas, el empréstito inglés de 1824 y las Islas Malvinas”, in Boletín del Centro Naval, Buenos Aires, January/February 1944, p. 647ff.



Update 4th Jan: Two good pieces to read: Ben Macintyre in today's The Times (£) and Azeem Ibrahim in HuffPost (from April 2010).