Showing posts with label trade. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trade. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 25, 2023

Orinoco oil output III...


By way of celebration of the easing of sanctions on Venezuela last week (albeit temporarily for the present) here's an interesting blog from Latinometrics Substack today: Venezuela's Oil Potential and its History [LINK]. Some facts from the article: "Venezuela owns 18% of all of the world's oil"..."By 1950, Venezuela was the world’s 4th-wealthiest nation per capita." Unbelievable, right?

...and the image below shows how they are keeping most of their oil in the ground, not what they'd like to do!


And here's where I repeat a post from 5 years ago:

Hazard a guess at these two countries: 

The first country "is one of the region’s oldest and strongest democracies.
"It boasts a stronger social safety net than any of its neighbours and is making progress on its promise to deliver free health care and higher education to all its citizens. It is a model of social mobility and a magnet for immigrants from across Latin America and Europe.
"The press is free, and the political system is open; opposing parties compete fiercely in elections and regularly alternate power peacefully. It sidestepped the wave of military juntas that mired some Latin American countries in dictatorship. Thanks to a long political alliance and deep trade and investment ties with the United States, it serves as the Latin American headquarters for a slew of multinational corporations. It has the best infrastructure in South America. It is still unmistakably a developing country, with its share of corruption, injustice, and dysfunction, but it is well ahead of other poor countries by almost any measure... 

"The second country is one of Latin America’s most impoverished nations and its newest dictatorship. Its schools lie half deserted. The health system has been devastated by decades of underinvestment, corruption, and neglect; long-vanquished diseases, such as malaria and measles, have returned. Only a tiny elite can afford enough to eat. An epidemic of violence has made it one of the most murderous countries in the world. [sic]
"It is the source of Latin America’s largest refugee migration in a generation, with millions of citizens fleeing in the last few years alone. Hardly anyone (aside from other autocratic governments) recognizes its sham elections, and the small portion of the media not under direct state control still follows the official line for fear of reprisals. By the end of 2018, its economy will have shrunk by about half in the last five years. It is a major cocaine-trafficking hub, and key power brokers in its political elite have been indicted in the United States on drug charges. Prices double every 25 days. The main airport is largely deserted, used by just a handful of holdout airlines bringing few passengers to and from the outside world." 

The two countries? Answer: these two countries are in fact the same country: Venezuela. Forty years is a long time
(Highlight with cursor to see answer). 

Read the rest of the article HERE. 'Venezuela’s Suicide. Lessons From a Failed State.' By Moisés Naím and Francisco Toro at Foreign Affairs Magazine.

Orinoco Belt info, world's largest reserves isn't a joke. 

Orinoco oil output III...


By way of celebration of the easing of sanctions on Venezuela last week (albeit temporarily for the present) here's an interesting blog from Latinometrics Substack today: Venezuela's Oil Potential and its History [LINK]. Some facts from the article: "Venezuela owns 18% of all of the world's oil"..."By 1950, Venezuela was the world’s 4th-wealthiest nation per capita." Unbelievable, right?

...and the image below shows how they are keeping most of their oil in the ground, not what they'd like to do!
And here's where I repeat a post from 5 years ago: Hazard a guess at these two countries: 

The first country "is one of the region’s oldest and strongest democracies. "It boasts a stronger social safety net than any of its neighbours and is making progress on its promise to deliver free health care and higher education to all its citizens. It is a model of social mobility and a magnet for immigrants from across Latin America and Europe. "The press is free, and the political system is open; opposing parties compete fiercely in elections and regularly alternate power peacefully. It sidestepped the wave of military juntas that mired some Latin American countries in dictatorship. Thanks to a long political alliance and deep trade and investment ties with the United States, it serves as the Latin American headquarters for a slew of multinational corporations. It has the best infrastructure in South America. It is still unmistakably a developing country, with its share of corruption, injustice, and dysfunction, but it is well ahead of other poor countries by almost any measure... 

"The second country is one of Latin America’s most impoverished nations and its newest dictatorship. Its schools lie half deserted. The health system has been devastated by decades of underinvestment, corruption, and neglect; long-vanquished diseases, such as malaria and measles, have returned. Only a tiny elite can afford enough to eat. An epidemic of violence has made it one of the most murderous countries in the world. [sic] "It is the source of Latin America’s largest refugee migration in a generation, with millions of citizens fleeing in the last few years alone. Hardly anyone (aside from other autocratic governments) recognizes its sham elections, and the small portion of the media not under direct state control still follows the official line for fear of reprisals. By the end of 2018, its economy will have shrunk by about half in the last five years. It is a major cocaine-trafficking hub, and key power brokers in its political elite have been indicted in the United States on drug charges. Prices double every 25 days. The main airport is largely deserted, used by just a handful of holdout airlines bringing few passengers to and from the outside world." 

The two countries? Answer: these two countries are in fact the same country: Venezuela. Forty years is a long time
(Highlight with cursor to see answer). 

Read the rest of the article HERE. 'Venezuela’s Suicide. Lessons From a Failed State.' By Moisés Naím and Francisco Toro at Foreign Affairs Magazine.

Orinoco Belt info, world's largest reserves isn't a joke. 

Saturday, June 10, 2023

Older opium outlook...





Image from RFI (France)
Interesting insights into the Afghanistan government's (AKA The Taliban) successful ban on opium production. William Byrd [Link to article] writing at The United States Institute of Peace [About] says "The ban is not a counter-narcotics victory and will have negative economic and humanitarian consequences, potentially leading to a refugee crisis.

This isn't the first time; the previous successful ban was in 2000/01 (and we all know what happened just afterwards and Helmand is 'by far Afghanistan's largest opium-producing province'...complete coincidence though). 

Banning opium production sounds like it is a noble cause right, especially as "Unlike the Taliban's previous opium ban, the current ban encompasses trade and processing of opiates, not just poppy cultivation." BUT the cultivated and harvest bumper crop from last year is not only exempted from destruction but also the trade of it can carry on. That said it does mean they are aware that bankrupting much of the rural population isn't a good thing either, so again, they've learnt from last time! 

Also, the noble cause is further tainted by the possibility that it is an economic ruse to restrict supply to allow the market price to rise and they can cash in on their large stock (super simplified and not wholly accurate, as discussed in links below). 

The article sheds more light on the whole situation and is definitely worth a read, with many references and info from David Mansfield reports at Alcis, ("Truly Unprecedented") and the Chapter 'Repositioning a Pariah Regime' from Mansfield's book A State Built on Sand is excellent [PDF

The war/s, COVID crises and intermittently closed borders cause -and have caused- much hardship over the years (you don't say) and 'although numerous eradication programmes have been underway for several years' (from picture link), Afghanistan has continued to be the world's main producer of opium (over 80% of total), so any ban is very likely to be temporary...ahem.

Older opium outlook...


Image from RFI (France)
Interesting insights into the Afghanistan government's (AKA The Taliban) successful ban on opium production. William Byrd [Link to article] writing at The United States Institute of Peace [About] says "The ban is not a counter-narcotics victory and will have negative economic and humanitarian consequences, potentially leading to a refugee crisis.

This isn't the first time; the previous successful ban was in 2000/01 (and we all know what happened just afterwards and Helmand is 'by far Afghanistan's largest opium-producing province'...complete coincidence though). 

Banning opium production sounds like it is a noble cause right, especially as "Unlike the Taliban's previous opium ban, the current ban encompasses trade and processing of opiates, not just poppy cultivation." BUT the cultivated and harvest bumper crop from last year is not only exempted from destruction but also the trade of it can carry on. That said it does mean they are aware that bankrupting much of the rural population isn't a good thing either, so again, they've learnt from last time! 

Also, the noble cause is further tainted by the possibility that it is an economic ruse to restrict supply to allow the market price to rise and they can cash in on their large stock (super simplified and not wholly accurate, as discussed in links below). 

The article sheds more light on the whole situation and is definitely worth a read, with many references and info from David Mansfield reports at Alcis, ("Truly Unprecedented") and the Chapter 'Repositioning a Pariah Regime' from Mansfield's book A State Built on Sand is excellent [PDF

The war/s, COVID crises and intermittently closed borders cause -and have caused- much hardship over the years (you don't say) and 'although numerous eradication programmes have been underway for several years' (from picture link), Afghanistan has continued to be the world's main producer of opium (over 80% of total), so any ban is very likely to be temporary...ahem.

Sunday, January 30, 2022

Ottawa 'outcasts' opposing ocracy overreach...



OK, mentioned yesterday as Truck Fudeau, one of the two stories breaking the internet over the weekend, and not just Ottawa - but that was the main destination of The Freedom Convoy 2022 (sort of appropriate but the name Ottawa is derived from the Algonquin word 'adawe', which means 'to trade'...keep on trucking!).

As the image suggests, the protest against medical MANDATES - not against vaccination per se [although I personally definitely am against anti Covid jabs that they call vaccines] - is gaining worldwide support. Australia, Brazil, Italy, USA to name a few...needless to say young Castro has left the building
 
Slightly off on a tangent, the amazing thing is, more and more I find myself agreeing with Russell Brand*: "With a large convoy of Canadian truckers forming a ‘Freedom Rally’ to protest vaccine mandates, how are government and media framing them less than 2 years after truckers, like nurses, were called heroes?" [Rumble

* should I be worried?

Update 30th Jan: the bad cat puts it so well, "justin trudeau: a portrait in cowardice and projection"... ..."but justin is a liar and so are all his filthy friends." [sic]

2nd update: The Cavalry Rode In. Wow...[Link] and good full week (good build-up info and videos) HERE at GD's Political Animal blog. 

Ottawa 'outcasts' opposing ocracy overreach...


OK, mentioned yesterday as Truck Fudeau, one of the two stories breaking the internet over the weekend, and not just Ottawa - but that was the main destination of The Freedom Convoy 2022 (sort of appropriate but the name Ottawa is derived from the Algonquin word 'adawe', which means 'to trade'...keep on trucking!).

As the image suggests, the protest against medical MANDATES - not against vaccination per se [although I personally definitely am against anti Covid jabs that they call vaccines] - is gaining worldwide support. Australia, Brazil, Italy, USA to name a few...needless to say young Castro has left the building
 
Slightly off on a tangent, the amazing thing is, more and more I find myself agreeing with Russell Brand*: "With a large convoy of Canadian truckers forming a ‘Freedom Rally’ to protest vaccine mandates, how are government and media framing them less than 2 years after truckers, like nurses, were called heroes?" [Rumble

* should I be worried?

Update 30th Jan: the bad cat puts it so well, "justin trudeau: a portrait in cowardice and projection"... ..."but justin is a liar and so are all his filthy friends." [sic]

2nd update: The Cavalry Rode In. Wow...[Link] and good full week (good build-up info and videos) HERE at GD's Political Animal blog. 

Sunday, July 12, 2020

Operation Overlook...






Brexiteers beware, keep the lookout, keep the pressure on. An oportune moment to not take one's eye off the ball. Harry Western (a pseudonym: "Harry Western is the pen-name of a senior economist working in the private sector") wrote an article that appeared yesterday on the Briefings for Britain blog (Economy & trade) "Brexiteers be alert again – Whitehall still trying to scupper a real Brexit".

"To a casual observer, the UK looks to be on course to leave the EU fully at the end of this year with either no trade deal or a deal of the ‘bare bones’ sort, either of which would deliver on the government’s avowed aim of delivering a genuinely independent trade policy..."




The most worrying of the developments is the announcement of a new agricultural commission to advise on food standards and trade policy. This was set up in the wake of an aggressive and well-funded campaign, led by the NFU, which featured a mass of misleading claims and scare stories about food imports... ...The names of individuals who will sit on this commission have now been announced and it could hardly be worse. There is an almost total absence of genuine expertise in the field of agricultural trade and economies...

[edited for typos!] There is more: the Department of International Trade (DIT) and Northern Ireland and, just as Harry mentions in the intro to his piece, taken in isolation these things may slip under the radar but taken together show the final battle is yet to be won.



Operation Overlook...


Brexiteers beware, keep the lookout, keep the pressure on. An oportune moment to not take one's eye off the ball. Harry Western (a pseudonym: "Harry Western is the pen-name of a senior economist working in the private sector") wrote an article that appeared yesterday on the Briefings for Britain blog (Economy & trade) "Brexiteers be alert again – Whitehall still trying to scupper a real Brexit". "To a casual observer, the UK looks to be on course to leave the EU fully at the end of this year with either no trade deal or a deal of the ‘bare bones’ sort, either of which would deliver on the government’s avowed aim of delivering a genuinely independent trade policy..."
The most worrying of the developments is the announcement of a new agricultural commission to advise on food standards and trade policy. This was set up in the wake of an aggressive and well-funded campaign, led by the NFU, which featured a mass of misleading claims and scare stories about food imports... ...The names of individuals who will sit on this commission have now been announced and it could hardly be worse. There is an almost total absence of genuine expertise in the field of agricultural trade and economies...
[edited for typos!] There is more: the Department of International Trade (DIT) and Northern Ireland and, just as Harry mentions in the intro to his piece, taken in isolation these things may slip under the radar but taken together show the final battle is yet to be won.

Monday, April 13, 2020

Obiter: oligopoly opininion...




When two cents is worth a million...read the thread and the replies/comments:

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Hat-tip: Raedwald.


Obiter: oligopoly opininion...


When two cents is worth a million...read the thread and the replies/comments:
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Hat-tip: Raedwald.

Saturday, July 06, 2019

October outrecuidance...




Our very own Октябрьский переворот? Useful idiots. "Thirty Tory MPs led by Chancellor Philip Hammond are plotting to stop a no-deal Brexit in October in a move which would raise the chance of a second referendum" Sky News understands. Lidington, Gauke, Letwin, Grieve and other assorted weak, wet egomaniacs along with the (not for long) Chancellor Phil Hammond is being - and has been for months - "increasingly vocal about the risks to the economy and UK union."

The only thing that is a risk, the ONLY thing, is the repeated idicocy like this being spouted that creates uncertanty. Any business worth it's salt is already ready and has been for ages, the only problem is imbelcile egotist politicians, IYI's to a man. We could have and should have been riding high two years ago.





Plus, the course of the EU is becoming clearer to even the dimmest Remainer: with the crow-barring in of German Ursula von der Leyen, "the decision by leaders to reject all the candidates for European Commission president and instead pick a little-known ally of Angela Merkel in a closed meeting was “not the Europe I imagined", similar to that of German Martin Selmayr last year, "Martin Selmayr’s sudden appearance at the top of the EU pyramid via a series of shadowy manoeuvres is the exact opposite of due process", we are seeing the true EU take shape. Hammond's aim is clearly to try to stay part of it.

October outrecuidance...


Our very own Октябрьский переворот? Useful idiots. "Thirty Tory MPs led by Chancellor Philip Hammond are plotting to stop a no-deal Brexit in October in a move which would raise the chance of a second referendum" Sky News understands. Lidington, Gauke, Letwin, Grieve and other assorted weak, wet egomaniacs along with the (not for long) Chancellor Phil Hammond is being - and has been for months - "increasingly vocal about the risks to the economy and UK union." The only thing that is a risk, the ONLY thing, is the repeated idicocy like this being spouted that creates uncertanty. Any business worth it's salt is already ready and has been for ages, the only problem is imbelcile egotist politicians, IYI's to a man. We could have and should have been riding high two years ago.

Plus, the course of the EU is becoming clearer to even the dimmest Remainer: with the crow-barring in of German Ursula von der Leyen, "the decision by leaders to reject all the candidates for European Commission president and instead pick a little-known ally of Angela Merkel in a closed meeting was “not the Europe I imagined", similar to that of German Martin Selmayr last year, "Martin Selmayr’s sudden appearance at the top of the EU pyramid via a series of shadowy manoeuvres is the exact opposite of due process", we are seeing the true EU take shape. Hammond's aim is clearly to try to stay part of it.

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Omega out option...







The Spectator image

Brexit...16 days to go [countdown]. As widely expected (obvious really) Treason May failed again with her unchanged changed BRINO plan. We are now approaching end game. Today, the treacherous slimey inadequate scum that are many of the UK's MPs will seek to stop the best deal, yes, the BEST deal is what they are calling "no deal" no deal not existing really as an option. They mean the WTO deal, ye DEAL, it is NOT 'no deal'.

I call it the omega option, the last option. I suppose I could have waited until tomorrow for the Greek alphabet reference (14th March is Pi Day in Yankee Doodle date speak) but today quite by chance the numbers coincided: Forget about absurd votes on No Deal – MPs ought to be invoking GATT Article 24, David Campbell Bannerman on Brexit Central. "However, should the UK leave the EU under what is wrongly referred to as a ‘No Deal’, trade deals would then be carried out under the international trade rules of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) that the UK helped establish."




"The 164 member WTO offers Britain a remarkable opportunity to leave the EU cleanly, avoiding all of the apocalyptic predictions set out by the likes of the CBI, Bank of England or Chancellor." [and literally dozens of others]

"Because through GATT Article 24, the EU and UK are able to agree a very basic Free Trade Agreement that would keep tariffs at zero for the duration of the period the two sides negotiate a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement.

Article 24 is by no means a final destination, it is simply a stop gap that would allow Britain to leave the EU on 29th March 2019"
.



The UK voted to LEAVE. The UK politicians are thwarting that. They will not be forgiven.




The EU has iterated again and again that there will be no more talks with the UK;  so any MP voting to remove the WTO deal from the table is knowingly trying to stop Brexit, intentionally working against their country is treason...there will be blood. 

Omega out option...


The Spectator image
Brexit...16 days to go [countdown]. As widely expected (obvious really) Treason May failed again with her unchanged changed BRINO plan. We are now approaching end game. Today, the treacherous slimey inadequate scum that are many of the UK's MPs will seek to stop the best deal, yes, the BEST deal is what they are calling "no deal" no deal not existing really as an option. They mean the WTO deal, ye DEAL, it is NOT 'no deal'. I call it the omega option, the last option. I suppose I could have waited until tomorrow for the Greek alphabet reference (14th March is Pi Day in Yankee Doodle date speak) but today quite by chance the numbers coincided: Forget about absurd votes on No Deal – MPs ought to be invoking GATT Article 24, David Campbell Bannerman on Brexit Central. "However, should the UK leave the EU under what is wrongly referred to as a ‘No Deal’, trade deals would then be carried out under the international trade rules of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) that the UK helped establish."
"The 164 member WTO offers Britain a remarkable opportunity to leave the EU cleanly, avoiding all of the apocalyptic predictions set out by the likes of the CBI, Bank of England or Chancellor." [and literally dozens of others]
"Because through GATT Article 24, the EU and UK are able to agree a very basic Free Trade Agreement that would keep tariffs at zero for the duration of the period the two sides negotiate a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement. Article 24 is by no means a final destination, it is simply a stop gap that would allow Britain to leave the EU on 29th March 2019".

The UK voted to LEAVE. The UK politicians are thwarting that. They will not be forgiven.

The EU has iterated again and again that there will be no more talks with the UK;  so any MP voting to remove the WTO deal from the table is knowingly trying to stop Brexit, intentionally working against their country is treason...there will be blood. 

Sunday, March 27, 2016

Obscurum per obscurius...








"World Trade Collapses in Dollars, Languishes in Volume" by Wolf Richter (on Wolf Street). "World trade in goods is just one factor in the global economy..." but is currently at its lowest level in a decade. 

Obscurum per obscurius...



"World Trade Collapses in Dollars, Languishes in Volume" by Wolf Richter (on Wolf Street). "World trade in goods is just one factor in the global economy..." but is currently at its lowest level in a decade. 

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

One outing...






BOO: WTO MFN (pdf) UK > EU, OK? [Link]




Update: and who bloody cares if we're called the nasty country?! Mr. Laszlo Andor please just fuck off! Look at the graph opposite and tell us where you think the blue line will be heading come January 2014? "The point is that the British public has not been told all the truth" you say; too bloody right we haven't! And you compound that by spouting utter shit. "We would need a more accurate presentation of the reality, not under pressure, not under hysteria, as sometimes happens in the UK. I would insist on presenting the truth, not false assumptions."...look at the graph (just Eastern European arrivals) Laszlo, ask anyone in the country, read how nobody could/can believe we're such a bloody pushover: "In 2004, the Home Office absurdly claimed just 13,000 would arrive. As it turned out, more than one million settled here over subsequent years".

One outing...


BOO: WTO MFN (pdf) UK > EU, OK? [Link]

Update: and who bloody cares if we're called the nasty country?! Mr. Laszlo Andor please just fuck off! Look at the graph opposite and tell us where you think the blue line will be heading come January 2014? "The point is that the British public has not been told all the truth" you say; too bloody right we haven't! And you compound that by spouting utter shit. "We would need a more accurate presentation of the reality, not under pressure, not under hysteria, as sometimes happens in the UK. I would insist on presenting the truth, not false assumptions."...look at the graph (just Eastern European arrivals) Laszlo, ask anyone in the country, read how nobody could/can believe we're such a bloody pushover: "In 2004, the Home Office absurdly claimed just 13,000 would arrive. As it turned out, more than one million settled here over subsequent years".