Sunday, December 03, 2017

Outsider odds orison...

Live in hope. "...[Political Betting's] assumption is that the next Tory leadership contest won’t be until 2019, so it might be wise to look at the current leadership polling and betting markets and assume whoever leads and is the favourite won’t be Theresa May’s successor. Just look at the odds on the next Tory leader in October 1974, a little over three months later the 50/1 outsider won" (image). By the same token and from the same source, "Ten days before he became Tory leader, only 5% of  [all] voters preferred John Major as Tory leader.".

This is a pity because Jacob Rees-Mogg and David Davis are the two current favourites and I would prefer either to the empty space we have now. I take that back: TM is actually WORSE than an empty space or at least seems to be making every effort to appear so. Add John Redwood, Owen Paterson, Priti Patel, Liam Fox, Kemi Badenoch, Boris Johnson etc., to Rees-Mogg and Davis and the Conservative Party may attract some Conservatives again.  

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