Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Optophobia over oncoming omnishambles...

i.e. scared to look at the political earthquake that is coming. Numbers are amazing, hopefully the actual results will be even more so. Anyhoo...

Good piece at CapX from Matt Singh: "The polls point towards a dramatic realignment. Are they right?" "Two of the three latest polls have shown the major parties’ combined share dropping below 50 per cent... ...This is extreme by historical standards – the only precedent came at the height of the SDP search after the Crosby by-election in 1981, when the equivalent number was 46.5 per cent. That aside, there hasn’t been anything comparable to this level of fragmentation in Britain since polling began 80 years ago."
The polls point towards a dramatic realignment: Matt Singh on CapX
I disagree on one thing in Matt's excellent article: "However, the Liberal Democrats are also picking up votes... While it can be debated whether these gains are solely due to Brexit, it is clear that the movement is not solely on the Leave side." Hmmm, I wouldn't mind betting that the LD gains are where there is not another 'protest vote' available and people put their 'x' by LD because they aren't CON or LAB. And of course we all know the polling accuracy of recent years hasn't exactly been much to crow about.

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